Bantasy Football: Bring you calculator, show your workings: Bantasy Football's Gameweek 5 Preview

Anywaaaaays, Bantasy football didn’t do maths for ages - and now we’ve gone done proper maffs on at least 2 occasions in 5 weeks. Admittedly there was some incredibly questionable mathematics in there, but you can’t accuse us of not trying. This week again is full of the counting and the algae bra and stuff. And only 99% of it I’ve plagiarised. See? Percentage - maffs already.

If you’re one of the 11 people who’s read my posts since the 2018/19 English Premier League season started, you’ll know that as a guest writer, I’ve been writing about my team that I constructed exclusively from summer signings (aka Noobs team). This week, I’m delivering the whole shabang (BANG!) - FPL tips on noobs and oldbs (new word) alike, with a layer of maths icing so mind-blowing you’ll think “Holy shit, @BantasyFootball must be an affiliated arm of MENSA”.

We’re not. But you'd be forgiven for thinkin' it.

But you know what they say: If you want something done right, do it yourself. Like when coach Goran Uzelac of lower league Croatian side NK Slavonija subbed himself on with his team 2-0 down - and scored a hattrick to win the game. That’s the kinda guy I am. Step up. Job done. Mic drop. Exit stage right.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, some people have been doing literally nothing. An innumerable amount of players have not even played one minute since joining their new homes in the English Premier League this summer. That’s not even hyperbole - I literally can’t count them there are so many. It’s the biggest waste of money since wrapping paper (seriously, think about it, WTF?) but more importantly, not playing football is just terrible for fantasy football points.

So let’s flag up a couple of the notable absentees, just in case 1) you were tempted to pick a player who had 0 points from 4 game weeks and need to be stopped; 2) it helps when you see them in the street, to remember to point and laugh; 3) it gives you footy chat fodder down the pub.

That Fabinho has yet to play in the BPL this season is notable cos he was soooo spenny. To be fair, Klopp has hinted at him getting some playing time, but hints doth not my feta crumble. Spending £43.7m on a player then not playing him seems a bit like lottery winners who say that they won’t let winning 10 million quid ‘change them’. Fucking wasters. That still hasn’t stopped 1 in 200 FPL managers putting Fabinho in their team though. I imagine they got roped into the office league and haven’t touched it since. Not like you. Doing all this proper research. Look at you. Hero.

Arsenal’s will-he-won’t-he-be-first-choice-keeper has most definitely been shown his place. He’s played 0 minutes this season; Umery instead going with Petr Cech between the sticky bits. Pretty harsh when you consider his experience in the Bundesliga. Still though, I expect it’s good to have a 20-million-pound second choice goalkeeper to give them that breadth to cover all the champions league games they’ll be playing. What? Oh seriously? You went there? I went there.

Of Brighton’s 16 (yes, 16) summer signings: 3 have played (for a total of 9 points this season), 4 haven’t played at all and 9 have not even been listed on FPL. Not listed? That’s like not being given a FIFA ranking. Or a name at birth. Suffice it to say then, don’t pick Brighton noobs. Cos Chris Hughton sure as fuck isn’t.

OK, OK, midfielder Torreira has actually played this season but he’s not started a game yet. But his story is the way i’m going to segue seamlessly into my bridging section between the noobs and non-noobs pieces of this segment. Watch - you won’t even realise it’s happening.

Arsenal paid a reported £26million for Lucas Torreira in the summer transfer window - but a ‘fair’ amount would have been £37million. That is at least according to an outfit called CIES Football Observatory who are arguably EVEN more scientific in their analysis than BantasyFootball. Hard to imagine I know. The best value purchases in the EPL this summer transfer window, according to their algorithm, were: Liverpool (Fabinho, Shaqiri, Alisson), Arsenal (Torreira), Huddersfield (Sobhi), Leicester (Evans) and Brighton (Andone).

Can we use this algorithm to try and find value in fantasy football players? Given that Andone and Fabinho haven’t even played, Shaqiri and Torreira don’t start and the other two have 6 points in total theeeeeeeen you’d probably have to say ‘no’. On top of that, the ‘worst value players’ (as in buying team’s overpaid) were some of the dreamboats of the summer signings: Ings, Keita, Seri, Kepa and Richarlison - in no specific order.

So fuck their stats. Who needs some well-funded, professional organisation’s stats when you have the combined finger in the air sentiment analysis, gut feel and questionable numeracy of an FPL manager who finishes mid-table every season? Well, quite. @programmaticlad at your service.

I’m a simple man-cum-puppet-master really. I look for 4 things from my FPL puppets: goals yes, but more importantly shots, big missed chances, and the number of times a player has hit the woodwork. I used that approach about 7 years ago when deciding to captain Bale vs Villa, and he scored a hattrick. You could argue I’m still dining out on that success today. And you’d be right. But that’s the sort of mathematician I am. If you shoot a lot and keep on NEARLY scoring - then any minute now, it's gonna rain goals. That's actual science. So, on that basis - here are the must haves:

Aguero: Season’s stats: 3 goals, 20 shots, hit the woodwork 3 times. He plays Fulham, Cardiff and Brighton in the next 3 games. Soooooo. Yeah. I think he’s a shoe-in if you can afford him. And you can afford him cos’ you’re gonna pick the next two players for cheaps(ish).

I wrote a thesis on him last week. And the week before. And the week before that. Season’s stats: 4 goals, 18 shots, hit the woodwork twice. Big fella. £4.6 cheaper than Aguero. Anyone who doesn’t have him in their FPL team is stupid. Like, pants-on-their-head, POTUS stupid. Don’t make me put on my Barney the Dinosaur costume and childrens-TV-explain it to you.

Callum Wilson (£6.2) - Bournemouth

I went and looked up all the numbers so you didn’t have to. What a guy. But even if I’d not gone and got the ‘evidence’, I’d still have no hesitation in picking Wilson. He was absolutely everywhere in the first 4 games but also - look, shiny season’s stats: 14 shots, 6 big missed chances, goals.

Marcos Alonso (£6.8) - Chelsea

A defender whose stats read 12 shots and hit the woodwork twice. That’s the kind of defender I want in my team. One that spends more time in the opposition box than his own. Yep he’s spenny but sometimes just gotta make it work and squeeze one in.

Oh and Mo Salah. Obvs.

Here some more stats for you that i actually found, compiled and used my very limited Microsoft office skills to put into a spreadsheet. Don’t tell me we don’t do anything for you.

Bring you calculator, show your workings: Bantasy Football's Gameweek 5 Preview

Noobs team update